These trends correspond to increasing consumer delinquencies in personal loans, bank cards, and auto loans, while mortgage delinquencies have only recently begun to tick upward. In addition, according to the Experian |Oxford Economics Main Street Report for Q4 2022, “Experian and Oxford Economics expect a cutback in spending this year as softer hiring and wage growth weigh on incomes. There will be a continued shift in the composition of spending away from goods toward services.”

Assuming this comes to fruition, small enterprise retailers will be the first to be affected. Also, as we have seen in past recessions, different parts of the country will be affected to different degrees and at various times. Therefore, retailers in the West region should be a top concern, but the South and Northeast may not be far behind.